High impact

Fed rate-hike odds dropped from 55% to 13% after Warsh signaled an October pause despite inflation at 3.7%, while Kalshi's odds of a Fed hold rose from 50% to 86%.

Bloomberg10/16, 07:22 PM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Pushes down
DaysMedium confidence
Sharply lower Fed hike odds reduce the yield-support case for the dollar

What could change this

Inflation still at 3.7% could revive hike bets if upcoming data surprise higher.