CME FedWatch shows an 83.9% probability the Fed holds rates steady in October and a 9.9% probability of holding steady by December, with a 76.0% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike by December.
Jin1010/22, 05:07 AM
- 83.9%
- 16.1%
- 9.9%
- 76.0%
Figures as quoted by Jin10
Market impact
Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.
USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Rising odds of a December rate hike support USD if the hike materializes
US10Y
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher hike probability tends to lift Treasury yields
Gold
Would push down
WeeksMedium confidence
Rising rate-hike odds raise the opportunity cost of holding gold
What could change this
If upcoming data weakens, hike odds could fall back toward a sustained hold, reducing this USD and yield support.
Related assets
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