CME FedWatch shows an 82.8% probability the Fed holds rates steady in October and a 6.4% probability of holding steady in December, with 77.8% odds of a cumulative 25bp hike by December.
Jin1010/20, 05:03 AM
- 82.8%
- 17.2%
- 6.4%
- 77.8%
Figures as quoted by Jin10
Market impact
Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.
US2Y
Pushes up
WeeksMedium confidence
High priced-in odds of a December hike support short-term Treasury yields.
Gold
Pushes down
WeeksMedium confidence
Rising odds of a Fed hike raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.
What could change this
A shift back toward a December hold would reduce support for USD and short-term yields.
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