CME FedWatch shows an 83.9% probability the Fed holds rates steady in October (16.1% chance of a 25bp hike), and for December an 8.2% chance of holding steady, 77.3% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike, and 14.5% chance of a cumulative 50bp hike.

Jin1010/19, 04:56 AM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Rising probability of a December Fed hike supports USD if the pricing holds into the meeting
US10Y
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher priced odds of further tightening can lift Treasury yields ahead of the December decision
Gold
Would push down
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold if the hike odds persist

What could change this

If incoming data pushes the hold probability for December higher, the hike-driven USD and yield support would fade.