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FED
FED
Market read
Traders see a hike as slightly more likely than a hold, a rare setup given a president publicly pushing for cuts. The near-even split shows genuine uncertainty over the Fed's next move rather than a clear consensus.
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Prediction markets on Kalshi now price a 52% probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike in September, versus 48% for no change, amid Trump's pressure on Fed Chair Warsh to cut rates.
Traders see a hike as slightly more likely than a hold, a rare setup given a president publicly pushing for cuts. The near-even split shows genuine uncertainty over the Fed's next move rather than a clear consensus.
Bloomberg·09/08, 01:05 AM
High impactKalshi prediction markets price a 52% probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike in September versus 48% for no change, as Trump pressures Fed Chair Warsh to cut rates.
Bloomberg·09/03, 08:29 PM
Kalshi now prices a 56% chance of a Fed rate hold in September versus 41% for a 25bp hike, following jobless claims rising to 206,000 and comments from Fed Governor Waller supporting a hold if August inflation confirms disinflation.
Jin10·09/02, 05:05 AM
CME FedWatch data shows a 33.1% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged in September (66.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike), and a 22.5% probability of a hold by October with 56.0% for a cumulative 25bp hike and 21.5% for a cumulative 50bp hike.
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