Overview
Traders see a hike as slightly more likely than a hold, a rare setup given a president publicly pushing for cuts. The near-even split shows genuine uncertainty over the Fed's next move rather than a clear consensus.
Updated 01:06 AM
High confidence09/08, 01:05 AM
Kalshi prediction markets price a 52% probability of a 25bps Fed rate hike in September versus 48% for no change, as Trump pressures Fed Chair Warsh to cut rates.
Bloomberg
09/08, 01:05 AM
Related updates
Bloomberg·09/03, 08:29 PM
Kalshi now prices a 56% chance of a Fed rate hold in September versus 41% for a 25bp hike, following jobless claims rising to 206,000 and comments from Fed Governor Waller supporting a hold if August inflation confirms disinflation.
Jin10·09/02, 05:05 AM
CME FedWatch data shows a 33.1% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged in September (66.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike), and a 22.5% probability of a hold by October with 56.0% for a cumulative 25bp hike and 21.5% for a cumulative 50bp hike.
Bloomberg·09/01, 11:40 PM
Societe Generale strategist Jan Groen expects the Fed to hike rates 25bp in September and December, with a possible additional hike in March, amid Chair Warsh's tougher inflation stance.
Bloomberg·08/28, 09:33 PM
Following Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, market pricing for a September Fed decision shifted: the probability of a hold fell from 71% to 50%, while odds of a 25bp hike rose from 30% to 49%.
Bloomberg·08/28, 08:06 PM
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver his first Jackson Hole keynote, with markets watching for signals on September rate policy, the Fed's task forces, AI's economic impact, communications strategy, and commitment to the 2% inflation target.
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