Septentrio, market intelligence at a glance

Rates / US 10Y Treasury

US10Y

US 10Y Treasury

4.68

-0.51% (-0.02)

ClosedUpdated 07/25, 01:59 AM

Market read

US10Y yields respond directly to Fed rate expectations. Market pricing of an 82% hike probability signals elevated expectations for higher short-term rates, which typically affects longer-duration fixed-income valuations and currency carry dynamics for USD-denominated instruments. Next up: 2-Year Note Auction.

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@Barchart · 07/25, 02:37 PM
Event soon
Market pricing indicates an 82% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.
US10Y yields respond directly to Fed rate expectations. Market pricing of an 82% hike probability signals elevated expectations for higher short-term rates, which typically affects longer-duration fixed-income valuations and currency carry dynamics for USD-denominated instruments.

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Fed rate hike expectations embedded in near-term pricing

Market repricing of terminal rate and policy pathway

Forward guidance interpretation

NewsLatest news affecting US10Y

TrendsScenarios and historical reactions

AnalysisMarket structure

PsychologyWhich way the crowd is leaning