Low impact
A poll found 94 of 100 economists now expect the Fed to raise the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% by end-2026, up from 29 of 76 in September.
FinancialJuice10/20, 07:39 PM
- 4.00%-4.25%
- 94 of 100
- 29 of 76
Figures as quoted by FinancialJuice
Market impact
Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.
USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Economists now broadly expect further Fed hikes, which tends to support the dollar if the view holds
US10Y
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
A shift toward expecting more Fed hikes can push longer-term yields higher
Gold
Would push down
WeeksMedium confidence
Expectations of a higher Fed funds rate raise the opportunity cost of holding gold
What could change this
If incoming data show inflation cooling, Fed officials could resist further hikes despite the shift in economist expectations.