Kalshi prediction-market traders now price a 55% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October, up from 21% earlier, with hike odds overtaking hold odds for the first time in months.

Bloomberg10/14, 08:09 PM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Pushes up
DaysMedium confidence
Rising priced odds of a Fed hike raise the appeal of USD assets
US10Y
Pushes up
DaysMedium confidence
Higher priced hike probability tends to lift Treasury yields
Gold
Pushes down
DaysMedium confidence
Rising hike odds raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold
Nasdaq
Pushes down
DaysMedium confidence
Higher expected rates raise discount rates on growth stock cash flows