CME FedWatch shows an 78.4% probability the Fed holds rates steady at its October meeting, versus 21.6% for a 25bp hike, and ahead of December, 12% for a hold, 69.7% for a 25bp hike and 18.3% for a 50bp hike.

Jin1010/14, 07:23 PM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Rising December hike odds raise expected returns on USD assets, supporting the dollar if sustained
US10Y
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher priced odds of a Fed hike can lift Treasury yields as tightening expectations build

What could change this

If upcoming US data weakens, the implied odds could shift back toward a hold, reducing the tightening lean.

101.75+0.12%vs previous close

-0.47%

since this story

Measured from the price when this story was posted to the latest stored price, so it can lag the live price.