Low impact
Market pricing implies a 74.5% probability the Fed holds rates steady in October and a 78.5% probability of a 25bp hike in December.
Jin1010/15, 03:00 PM
Market impact
Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.
USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Elevated December hike odds raise expected dollar returns, supporting USD
Gold
Would push down
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher hike odds raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold
What could change this
Softer incoming data, such as PPI or Retail Sales, could lower hike odds and reverse this pricing.
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