A Wall Street Journal survey of 14 forecasters sees September US headline CPI rising to 3.6% y/y on energy, with core CPI forecast at 0.22% m/m (range 0.16%-0.24%) and 2.4% y/y, due Wednesday at 1230 GMT.

InvestingLive10/14, 05:45 AM

Figures as quoted by InvestingLive

Market impact

Event risk

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
DaysLow confidence
A headline CPI print near or above the 3.6% y/y forecast could ease pressure for Fed rate cuts, supporting USD
US10Y
Would push up
DaysLow confidence
Inflation confirming the 3.6% y/y forecast could keep Treasury yields elevated on reduced rate-cut bets
Gold
Would push down
DaysLow confidence
A hotter CPI print raising yields could pressure Gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding it

What could change this

If core CPI comes in below the 0.16%-0.24% m/m forecast range, the dollar-supportive case weakens.