Capital.com senior analyst Daniela Hathorn said Wednesday's US September CPI is expected to show headline inflation accelerating to about 3.7% y/y on higher energy prices, with core CPI around 2.5%, and markets currently price an 80% chance the Fed holds rates in October.

Jin1010/14, 02:50 PM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
Firmer CPI forecast plus 80% priced Fed hold would support USD if confirmed by the actual print
US10Y
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
Reduced odds of Fed easing on firmer inflation data tend to lift Treasury yields if confirmed
Gold
Would push down
DaysMedium confidence
Less Fed-easing pressure from firmer inflation raises the opportunity cost of holding Gold if confirmed

What could change this

If actual CPI comes in below the 3.7% headline or 2.5% core forecasts, Fed-cut expectations could firm instead, weakening USD and yields.