Wall Street analysts are raising core PCE inflation forecasts to at least 0.3% MoM after hot September CPI data, with TD Securities revising its estimate to 0.36% from 0.23%.
Bloomberg10/14, 08:26 PM
- 0.3% MoM
- 0.21%
- 0.36%
- 0.23%
Figures as quoted by Bloomberg
Market impact
Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.
US10Y
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
Upgraded core PCE forecasts raise the inflation risk premium priced into long yields
USD
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
Higher expected inflation can reduce pressure for faster Fed easing, supporting the dollar
Gold
Would push down
DaysMedium confidence
Rising real yield expectations raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold
What could change this
If the actual core PCE print comes in below these upgraded forecasts, the support for yields and USD would likely fade.
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