Low impact

Multiple banks' forecasts for US September unadjusted y/y CPI cluster mostly around +3.6%-3.7% (prior +3.4%, consensus +3.6%), with core CPI forecasts clustering around +2.4%-2.5% (prior +2.4%, consensus +2.5%).

Jin1010/14, 02:27 PM

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
A CPI print near the +3.6-3.7% forecast cluster could ease Fed rate-cut bets, supporting the dollar
US10Y
Would push up
DaysMedium confidence
Inflation coming in near or above the forecast cluster could push yields higher on reduced easing odds
Gold
Would push down
DaysMedium confidence
Higher-than-prior inflation reducing Fed easing bets raises the opportunity cost of holding gold

What could change this

A print below the forecast cluster and closer to the prior would ease inflation concerns and reduce the USD/yield support.