CME FedWatch shows a 92.8% probability the Fed holds rates steady in October, with December showing a 74.8% chance of a cumulative 25bp hike and 19.5% chance of a 50bp hike.

Jin1010/23, 05:03 AM

Figures as quoted by Jin10

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Higher priced odds of a December Fed rate hike support USD via higher expected yields.
US10Y
Would push up
WeeksMedium confidence
Elevated hike odds for December support higher Treasury yields if the path is confirmed.

What could change this

If incoming data before the December meeting weakens, hike odds could be repriced lower, reducing the USD support.