Low impact

CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike by October rising to 33.2%, with December cumulative hike probabilities at 62.2% for 25bp and 28.7% for 50bp.

Jin1010/15, 05:08 AM

Figures as quoted by Jin10

Market impact

Which way this story pushes each asset. An inference from the story, not a measured move.

USD
Pushes up
DaysMedium confidence
Rising Fed hike odds raise the expected return on dollar assets
US10Y
Pushes up
DaysMedium confidence
Higher expected Fed tightening tends to lift Treasury yields
Gold
Pushes down
DaysMedium confidence
Higher rate-hike odds raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold

What could change this

A softer US data print or dovish signal from Fed officials before the meetings could pull these hike odds back down.

101.75+0.12%vs previous close

-0.76%

since this story

Measured from the price when this story was posted to the latest stored price, so it can lag the live price.