UK supermarkets expect a lower peak of food inflation according to a Bank of England survey.

UK July decision-maker year-ahead CPI expectations at 3%.

UK Services PMI rose to 51.8 in July, Manufacturing PMI to 52.8, and Composite PMI to 52.1, all beating forecasts.

UK July services PMI rose to 51.8, significantly exceeding the forecast of 49.4.

UK June retail sales excluding auto fuel rose 1.1% month-on-month, beating the -0.5% forecast but missing the 1.2% prior reading.

UK June retail sales rose 1.0% month-on-month versus -0.3% expected, and 4.2% year-on-year versus 2.3% expected.

UK GfK consumer confidence improved to -17 in July from -23 in June, beating the forecast of -21.

Traders have fully priced in 50 basis points of Bank of England rate hikes by year-end.

UK CBI orders actual -45, matching previous month but beating forecast of -40.

US indices close mixed on July 24; Dow up 0.45%, S&P up 0.05%, Nasdaq down 0.64%; crude oil settles at $89.31; Trump: Iran not ready to make a deal; US new-home sales 0.628M vs 0.610M estimate; July Flash S&P Global Manufacturing 53.8 vs 54.3 estimate; Canada June PPI -1.4% vs -0.4% expected; Canada new housing price index June -0.1% vs -0.3% last month.

USD strength continued after last week's PPI release; a bull flag breakout occurred this week ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with 101.80 identified as key DXY resistance.

Bank of England to maintain bank rate at 3.75% through mid-2027, according to poll median.

Central banks' interest rate expectations shifted this week, with RBNZ pricing 57 bps of hikes by year-end (71% probability of rate hike at next meeting), Fed 42 bps (64% probability of no change), ECB 41 bps (70% probability of rate hike), BoE 37 bps (92% probability of no change), RBA 28 bps (61% probability of no change), BoJ 25 bps (97% probability of no change), BoC 20 bps (93% probability of no change), and SNB 15 bps (84% probability of no change).

UK manufacturing PMI flash reading came in at 52.8, above the forecast of 52 and prior month's 52.5.

European and US Flash PMI data scheduled for release today are unlikely to drive central bank policy changes, with market focus on US-Iran developments and potential hawkish Fed dissent on July rate decision.

US stocks fell sharply on geopolitical tensions, Middle East escalation threats, rising oil prices, and elevated Treasury yields; crude oil futures rose 6.17% to $92.19, mortgage rates hit highest since August 2025, and major indices declined.

WTI crude oil surged 7% intraday, breaking above $93/barrel; Brent crude rose over 5% to $95.31/barrel.

Sterling weakens as Middle East tensions support the dollar ahead of ECB decision.

UK 10-year gilt yields climbed to 5.08%, their highest in over two months, as traders price in approximately 48 bps of Bank of England rate hikes by year-end amid inflation expectations and fiscal concerns.