Market context and what deserves attention.
This week’s main theme
Bitcoin topped $80,000 as US stocks rallied 1.1% after Fed Governor Waller said he could support holding rates steady if inflation keeps easing, while the dollar hit its lowest since May.
Bitcoin topped $80,000 as US stocks rallied 1.1% after Fed Governor Waller said he could support holding rates steady if inflation keeps easing, while the dollar hit its lowest since May.
USD/JPY fell to its lowest level in about six months as the yen strengthened on rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its September meeting.
The yen is strengthening because markets increasingly expect a BOJ rate hike this month. A move this broad-based in the dollar can also show up modestly in other dollar pairs, including EUR/USD.
Nvidia is reported to have discussed a $2.5 billion investment in Thinking Machines Lab, disclosed alongside stronger-than-expected US August nonfarm payrolls (162,000 vs. 56,000 forecast).
Nvidia is reportedly pursuing another large capital commitment to an AI startup. This adds to the list of sizable AI-related investments the company has been making beyond its core chip business.
China's August trade data is due, with a Reuters poll forecasting a trade surplus widening to about $119.05 billion from $112.5 billion in July, alongside export growth of 25% (up from 23.9%) and import growth of 30% (up from 27.5%).
A wider forecast surplus points to still-firm external demand for Chinese goods. The source notes a beat on this data could firm up AUD, which is often read as a demand proxy for China trade.
USD/JPY fell to its lowest level in about six months as the yen strengthened on rising expectations that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its September meeting.
The yen is strengthening because markets increasingly expect a BOJ rate hike this month. A move this broad-based in the dollar can also show up modestly in other dollar pairs, including EUR/USD.
Nvidia is reported to have discussed a $2.5 billion investment in Thinking Machines Lab, disclosed alongside stronger-than-expected US August nonfarm payrolls (162,000 vs. 56,000 forecast).
Nvidia is reportedly pursuing another large capital commitment to an AI startup. This adds to the list of sizable AI-related investments the company has been making beyond its core chip business.
China's August trade data is due, with a Reuters poll forecasting a trade surplus widening to about $119.05 billion from $112.5 billion in July, alongside export growth of 25% (up from 23.9%) and import growth of 30% (up from 27.5%).
A wider forecast surplus points to still-firm external demand for Chinese goods. The source notes a beat on this data could firm up AUD, which is often read as a demand proxy for China trade.
Ether dropped 2.4% to lead a broad risk-off move alongside Bitcoin (-2%, $77,247) and gold (-2.4%, $4,330) as markets watched a Strait of Hormuz disruption keep oil elevated.
Ether is falling alongside both Bitcoin and gold at once, showing this is a broad risk-off move rather than a crypto- or gold-specific issue. The trigger being watched is whether oil stays elevated, which would keep pressuring equities and other risk assets including Ether.
BTC
-0.74%
78,507.99
Why it matters: A Fed official signaling openness to pausing rate hikes coincided with a broad risk-on move across stocks, bitcoin, and the yen. So what: the dollar's slide to a multi-month low alongside bitcoin's rally suggests investors are treating easier Fed policy expectations as supportive for risk assets generally, not just crypto.EUR/USD
+0.07%
1.1631
Why it matters: The yen is strengthening because markets increasingly expect a BOJ rate hike this month. A move this broad-based in the dollar can also show up modestly in other dollar pairs, including EUR/USD.GBP/USD
+0.05%
1.3548
Why it matters: The yen's surge signals markets are now nearly certain the BOJ will hike, which is pressuring the dollar broadly rather than just against the yen. GBP/USD also gained on the day, consistent with this being a broad dollar move rather than a GBP-specific one.NVDA
-1.33%
227.30
Why it matters: Nvidia is reportedly pursuing another large capital commitment to an AI startup. This adds to the list of sizable AI-related investments the company has been making beyond its core chip business.USD/CNY
-0.04%
6.7066
Why it matters: A wider forecast surplus points to still-firm external demand for Chinese goods. The source notes a beat on this data could firm up AUD, which is often read as a demand proxy for China trade.AUD/USD
+0.04%
0.7222
Why it matters: A stronger China trade print would signal firmer external demand, which AUD often tracks as a China demand proxy. A beat on the forecast could support AUD, while a miss could weigh on it.