S7 Brief

The RBNZ delivered a 25bp rate hike this week but paired it with dovish forward guidance, while the BoC held rates and used more hawkish language.

• Danske Bank says rising oil prices and stronger-than-expected jobs data have raised the odds of a Fed rate hike next week, but the bank still expects no hike then, instead forecasting two Fed rate hikes, in December and March.Danske Bank sees the Fed staying on hold next week despite louder hike talk, but pencils in two hikes later, in December and March. That keeps the hike debate alive for coming meetings rather than resolving it now.
• Shortly after market open, the Dow fell 429.11 points (0.80%) to 52,985.14 while the Nasdaq rose 27.79 points (0.11%) to 26,534.78 and the S&P 500 slipped 6.66 points (0.09%) to 7,711.94.The Dow is underperforming while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are little changed, showing the early weakness is concentrated rather than broad-based.
• China's August trade surplus came in close to estimates, with exports and imports both growing faster year-on-year than the prior month.China's export and import growth both accelerated from the prior month, signaling steady external and domestic demand. Imports rose faster than expected while exports matched forecasts, suggesting domestic demand held up even as import growth undershot its own estimate.